Laytonville, Calif. -- The man in brightly colored tie-dye frowns when he grabs a pruner from his work shed and heads to his garden. James Taylor Jones approaches a bushy marijuana plant, 6 feet tall and almost as wide. The pruner's blade grabs hold of the stalk, and Jones squeezes the handles together. Snap.
He walks to another plant and does the same. "This one is Headband," Jones says, naming the variety. "Don't tell me that as you're cutting it," his wife, Fran Harris, pleads. Thus ends the Peace and Love Medical Marijuana Collective.
Here in Mendocino County — where generations of mom-and-pop outlaws have made a living growing pot and dodging the cops — who could have predicted that legality would be more uncertain than illegality? For the first time in their lives, Jones and Harris expected to be completely legit pot entrepreneurs this year. But spooked by federal raids of other northern California growers, scared about the risks even though they said they followed state and local laws, they decided to shut the collective down midway through the growing season.
"We don't want to go to jail," Jones says. "It's that simple."
"It's such a huge gray area right now," Harris says. "What appears to be legal now might not be legal next year."
Stories like Jones and Harris' offer a reminder that marijuana legalization — if ever it comes — likely won't be a smooth process. Predictions of what a world of legalized marijuana would look like are based on assumptions that can't be verified and expectations that may prove slippery.
Pundits and some politicians extol the tax money legal marijuana could bring in. But if legalization sends prices plunging, so, too, would the revenue.
Others argue legalizing marijuana would cripple the black market. But if new regulations and taxes encourage growers and users to remain underground, the black market — and the drug cartels that feast on it — would continue to thrive.
Individual states may legalize marijuana first — California voters will decide this year on limited legalization. But if the federal government doesn't go along, does any of it really matter?
In short, all the things that make medical marijuana such a complicated and contentious issue would likely only intensify with full legalization.
USA -- The cult movie Reefer Madness, released in 1938, warned of the horrors of marijuana — or, as a movie poster put it, "the torturer that never stops." The film was an extreme portrait, full of death and rape and depravity, but it was only an exaggerated version of the real fears America long had about marijuana. Yet in recent years, as medical use of marijuana has gained acceptance and the backing of the law, that century-old national consensus has slowly broken down. And now, this election season, it could completely shatter, starting in California. Next month, Californians will vote on Proposition 19: the Regulate, Control and Tax Cannabis Act of 2010. Prop 19 would make recreational use of marijuana entirely legal — and allow cash-strapped cities to raise funds by taxing it. Completely legalizing pot may sound like a radical idea, but not to the people who are actually going to decide: the latest Public Policy Institute of California poll found that 52% of likely voters support Prop 19, with just 41% who oppose it.
In fact, Prop 19 is polling better than Senator Barbara Boxer or her Republican opponent, Carly Fiorina. It is also outpolling the gubernatorial candidates, Democrat Jerry Brown and Republican Meg Whitman. It is gaining support as the election grows nearer — and it has the backing of the state Service Employees International Union, perhaps the state's most powerful union.
Even if the Prop 19 does not pass, there is not much left to the laws against marijuana in California. More than three decades ago, the state decriminalized possession of small amounts of pot, making it a misdemeanor punishable by a fine. Last week, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger took decriminalization a big step further: he downgraded possession of an ounce or less of pot to an infraction. That means that someone caught with as many as 30 joints will soon get traffic-ticket-level punishment — and no criminal record. California is not only the largest state, it is the place where social movements begin, and it has led on marijuana policy before: it was the first state to legalize medical marijuana, in 1996, and since then, 13 states and the District of Columbia have followed. Already, a group in Colorado is working to put a Prop 19–like referendum on the ballot there in 2012. A poll of Coloradoans found that 49% favored legalizing and taxing marijuana, with just 39% opposed.
One of the main arguments for rethinking marijuana laws is economic. A new study by the libertarian Cato Institute found that turning cannabis into a regulated commodity would save $8.7 billion in law-enforcement costs annually, while generating $8.7 billion in revenue.
Supporters of Prop 19 argue that in these dire fiscal times, when the state has been laying off teachers and hospitals have been firing nurses, putting low-level pot users through the legal system is a luxury California cannot afford. Governor Schwarzenegger — who opposes Prop 19, which he believes goes too far — said when he signed the pot-infraction law that bringing criminal charges for pot possession is a waste of "limited resources" in a time when the state faces "drastic budget cuts."
The governor may also have been thinking about conditions in his state's prisons, which house twice as many inmates as they were designed to hold, and were ordered last year to reduce the overcrowding. Prop 19 is also getting strong backing from civil rights groups, including the state National Association for the Advancement of Colored People and the Latino Voters League. Fueling their support is a study by the Drug Policy Alliance that found that in the state's 25 largest counties, blacks were arrested at double, triple and even quadruple the rate of whites — even though studies have shown that young blacks use marijuana at lower rates than young whites.
But the biggest factor driving the pro-legalization movement is simply changing attitudes. People today are more skeptical of the claim that pot is a gateway drug and that people who use it are destined to move on to harder substances. In fact, a study published last month in the Journal of Health and Social Behavior found that life factors like employment status and stress were stronger predictors of whether teenagers would use other illegal drugs than whether they had smoked marijuana.
Many supporters of legalization acknowledge that marijuana has bad health effects. They just argue that it is hypocritical to make pot use a crime, when alcohol — which has well-documented links to automobile fatalities, domestic abuse and birth defects — remains legal. The alcohol industry has been contributing to the "Say No on Prop 19" campaign, no doubt worried that if pot is legalized, it will cut into beer and liquor sales. If Prop 19 passes, marijuana will not be entirely legal in California. It would still violate federal law and the federal Drug Enforcement Administration could still arrest and prosecute people. But as a practical matter, the overwhelming majority of marijuana arrests are done by state law enforcement, and it seems unlikely the Federal Government would take up the slack. Last year, in fact, the Justice Department announced that it would not prosecute people who use medical marijuana in states that have made it legal.
The best indicator of where marijuana policy is headed may be the demographic breakdown of the Prop 19 polling. In a SurveyUSA poll, only 36% of likely California voters over the age of 65 said they were certain to vote yes, while 61% of those between 18 and 34 were certain they would. That is similar to the gap that polls have found for gay marriage — another social issue on which public opinion and national policy have been changing fast. When polls show a dramatic gap between the generations, as they do on marijuana legalization, it is a good bet that before long, the young people's position will prevail.
Cohen, a lawyer, is a former TIME writer and a former member of the New York Times editorial board. Case Study, his legal column for TIME.com, appears every Wednesday.